The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics issued a major update to its House race ratings Wednesday, shifting 17 congressional contests across the country as redistricting battles, primary election results, and political scandals continue reshaping the 2026 midterm landscape.
The most significant changes came in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis recently signed a new congressional map widely expected to strengthen the GOP’s grip on the House.
Nine of the Center’s revised race ratings involved Florida districts, and overall the changes favored Republicans.
Among the biggest shifts was Florida’s 14th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Kathy Castor. The district moved from “Safe Democratic” all the way to “Leans Republican,” signaling just how dramatically the new map altered the state’s political terrain.
Rep. Darren Soto’s 9th District also underwent a sharp change, moving from “Likely Democratic” to “Likely Republican.”
Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd and 25th congressional districts also became immediate battlegrounds. The 22nd shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” while the 25th moved into full “Toss-up” territory.
Several Republican-held Florida districts also became slightly more competitive, though they still lean heavily toward the GOP. Seats represented by Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar, and retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan all shifted from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Taken together, the Florida changes are expected to improve Republicans’ overall House outlook heading into November.
The Center for Politics had already adjusted several Virginia districts last week after voters approved a new redistricting plan there. Four Virginia House seats previously considered toss-ups or Republican-leaning shifted toward Democrats under the revised boundaries.
Tuesday night’s elections in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana also prompted several additional rating changes that largely benefited Democrats.
In Ohio, longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur saw her 9th Congressional District improve from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” The shift is notable because the district had been redrawn in 2025 specifically to become more favorable for Republicans.
Kaptur narrowly defeated Republican Derek Merrin in 2024, and the pair are now heading toward another closely watched rematch this fall.
Republican Rep. Max Miller’s district also became less secure. The Center downgraded Ohio’s 7th District from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” citing fallout from Miller’s highly publicized divorce and child custody dispute involving the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno.
Scandal concerns also impacted races in North Carolina and Texas.
In North Carolina, reports of a House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Chuck Edwards over allegations of sexual misconduct prompted analysts to move the state’s 11th District from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
In Texas, the vacant 23rd District formerly represented by scandal-plagued Republican Tony Gonzales also became slightly more competitive, shifting from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Elsewhere around the country, several districts saw smaller but still notable adjustments.
Indiana Democrat Frank Mrvan’s 1st District improved from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Michigan Republican Bill Huizenga’s 4th District weakened from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” while Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s 8th District strengthened from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Minnesota Republican Brad Finstad’s 1st District also shifted from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
After all the changes, the Center for Politics said the national House landscape now stands at 213 districts rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Democratic, compared to 207 districts rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican. Fifteen races remain true toss-ups.
