It’s only 2025, but New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race is already taking shape — and it’s shaping up to be a political powder keg. A newly released GrayHouse poll suggests that Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul is heading toward a bruising showdown with Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, with early numbers showing the incumbent holding a razor-thin 5-point lead. Worse for Hochul, that lead completely vanishes once voters are given more context about her record and recent endorsements.
The numbers tell the story of a governor on the ropes. Hochul leads Stefanik 48% to 43% in the baseline head-to-head. But buried in the polling data is a warning sign flashing in neon: 59% of New York voters say it’s time for someone else. That includes independents, who are especially critical of Hochul’s recent move to endorse socialist New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. According to the poll, nearly half of independent voters say a Mamdani victory would make them less likely to vote for a Democrat in the governor’s race.
This matters because Mamdani is not just any fringe figure. He represents the most radical edge of New York’s Democratic Party — the same lane as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Hochul’s endorsement, meant to shore up support from the activist left, is clearly backfiring with the state’s exhausted middle.
And when voters are given an “informed ballot” — that is, when they hear narratives about each candidate, including Hochul’s ties to Mamdani — Stefanik actually pulls slightly ahead, 46.4% to 45.9%. That’s not just close. That’s competitive in a state where Democrats usually expect to cruise.
Stefanik’s team was quick to seize the moment. In a statement, she labeled Hochul “the worst Governor in America,” citing New York’s affordability crisis, its continued crime wave stemming from failed bail reform, and the state’s sanctuary policies that many voters feel put illegal immigrants and criminals ahead of law-abiding New Yorkers. Her strategist, Alex deGrasse, noted that this poll comes before Stefanik has even formally entered the race — a clear suggestion that things will only tighten further once the campaign machinery kicks into gear.
Stefanik, a decade-long congressional veteran from upstate New York and a rising Republican star, is no stranger to national attention. As a member of House GOP leadership and a close ally of President Trump, her political brand is already well established. While she was once tapped to be Trump’s ambassador to the UN, she famously withdrew her name in order to help preserve the Republican House majority, a move that won her loyalty from the party’s base and leadership alike.
Hochul, on the other hand, is still struggling to build a firm identity. Elevated to the governor’s mansion in the wake of Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, she limped across the finish line in 2022 with a narrower-than-expected win over Republican Lee Zeldin. That race — once assumed to be a double-digit Democrat victory — ended up being one of the closest statewide contests in a generation, and it should’ve served as a wake-up call for New York Democrats. It didn’t.
Even more precarious for Hochul is the growing fracture inside her own party. GrayHouse’s data shows Democratic voters evenly split between establishment liberals like Pelosi and Schumer and progressive firebrands like AOC, Sanders, and Mamdani. Hochul’s attempt to appease both wings may end up pleasing neither. Her endorsement of Mamdani didn’t even earn a reciprocal nod from the candidate himself — a signal that her political capital may be dwindling faster than expected.
