Well, well, well — the Democrats are waking up to a nightmare: Gen Z isn’t theirs anymore.
A new Yale Youth Poll just dropped a political grenade, showing that voters aged 18 to 21 — the youngest block of Gen Z — lean Republican by nearly 12 points when asked who they’d back in the 2026 midterms. That’s not just a crack in the Dems’ youth firewall. That’s a breach. Meanwhile, the 22-to-29 crowd still gives Democrats a slight edge (+6.4), but the generational gap is glaring.
And this isn’t a blip. Young voters helped push Donald Trump back into the White House in 2024, and his approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds climbed to 52.7% in February, according to AtlasIntel. Let that sink in — Trump, the man the Left swore young voters would hate forever, is above water with Gen Z.
Democrats are trying to understand why young men keep voting GOP. @matthewichoi & @merica recap findings from a focus group, with several saying Democrats don’t have a masculine politician (except for Obama) in today’s #TheEarlyBrief: https://t.co/PQc0Lf5XJU
— Marianna Sotomayor (@MariannaReports) July 29, 2025
The Yale poll also shows who’s resonating: JD Vance. Trump’s VP is the most popular figure among Republicans overall with a net favorability of +65, and +54 among Republicans under 30. More than half of Republicans say they’d back him in 2028. Meanwhile, on the Dem side? Kamala Harris leads their hypothetical primary with 27.5% and a +60 favorability. Not exactly inspiring stuff.
So what’s going on? It’s partly cultural. The Democrats have spent years branding themselves as the party of the perpetually offended — the blue-haired scolds who throw Twitter fits over jeans commercials. Case in point: Sydney Sweeney does an American Eagle ad, and suddenly left-wing corners of the internet implode. Meanwhile, American Eagle sells out of those jeans and their stock climbs. You know who isn’t crying over it? Young men.
And that’s the Democrats’ real crisis. They’ve become a party with zero appeal to masculine energy. Their own pollster even admitted the only “masculine politician” they have is Obama — a guy who hasn’t been on a ballot in over a decade. Compare that to the GOP: Trump projects strength. Vance is sharp and unapologetic. Heck, even their branding speaks to grit.
So is it any wonder young men are leaning Republican? The choice is between a party fronted by Sydney-Sweeney-level cultural wins versus a party offering… lectures and TikTok scolds.
David Cohen, a political scientist, put it bluntly: “If [the Democratic base] is eroding, where do they make up for that? … They’ll have to figure out how to bring young voters back — particularly young men — if they want to be competitive nationally.”
