On Monday, the Court decided the government is “unlikely to succeed on the merits” regarding its challenge to immediately block the rule. A lower court injunction stands, meaning the new envelope rules cannot start before the 2026 elections since ballots have already been sent out for that cycle. Yet Kavanaugh wrote a separate opinion that changes the whole game. He stated that, given the interim briefing provided to the Court, there appears to be a reasonable possibility the final rule aligns with the Postal Service’s statutory authority. That single line keeps the rule alive for the next presidential race.
This move is not a surprise to those watching the Court closely. Per Fox News, Jason Snead of the Honest Elections Project called it a “lifeline” thrown by the justice. Snead noted that if you read the full text, you can see where Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito stand on these questions too.
The rule in question requires federal ballot-mail envelopes to carry an election-mail logo. They must be scannable by high-speed processing equipment and include a unique barcode for each voter. States would also need to upload specific voter data to a Postal Service portal. A group of 24 Democratic state attorneys general sued to stop it. They argue the rule violates the Constitution’s Elections Clause. The Trump administration counters that the USPS is regulating the mail, not the election itself. The legal battle is far from over, even after Monday’s loss.
While the 2026 midterms are safe from this change, the door remains open for 2028. Fox News Digital was informed by Snead that he believes there is a fair chance the matter will eventually return to the Supreme Court. He added that he holds out hope for more litigation to allow the rule before the next presidential election. Justice Alito joined by Justice Thomas wrote a dissent that raises similar questions. They wonder if the policy can survive the legal fight in time for 2028. The policy faces a delay, but it also has a potential path forward.
Kavanaugh has been active on these types of issues recently. Roughly three months ago, he laid out a legal path for Trump to curb birthright citizenship in a different case. He also offered a blueprint for implementing sweeping tariffs in a recent dissent. The pattern is clear.
Do not assume the new ballot rules are dead. They are simply paused for now. The Supreme Court rejected the immediate request, but the legal framework Kavanaugh cited suggests the rules could still become mandatory. For families concerned about election integrity, this is a crucial development. The rule aims to standardize best practices about mail ballot envelope design. “We’re talking about taking best practices about mail ballot envelope design that have been long-standing and making that mandatory guidance,” reports note regarding the intent.
The 2026 cycle is secure, but the 2028 election is the new battleground. The Court said no today, but the door is not shut. The battle for the 2028 ballot rules is just beginning.
