You think the decision to pull $4 billion in aid came after the election results? Think again. President Trump announced the end of this massive cash flow on a Tuesday, well before voters cast their ballots in the midterm contests.
The plan was already in motion. Per The Daily Caller, Trump disclosed he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed months ago to end the annual assistance. The money stops flowing by the end of this year. This wasn’t a panic move. It was a calculated shift.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Many assumed the White House reacted to the recent political shellacking. That is wrong. According to The New York Post, the US has been planning to reduce direct aid for months. The goal was to reframe the deal as a strategic partnership instead of a handout.
POTUS simply accelerated those plans. The aid currently stands at about $3.8 billion per year. This funding comes from a Memorandum of Understanding signed back in 2016. Under those terms, the US provides $33 billion in military financing and $5 billion for missile defense over a decade.
Trump made his stance clear on “Fox & Friends” Tuesday morning. He told host Brian Kilmeade, “Why? They don’t need it, Brian.” He argued that Israel has become a very successful country. The funds are now seen as a wasted thing by the administration.
.@POTUS on aid to Israel: “It gets cut off at the end of the year… They don’t need it… Israel is a very thriving country.” https://t.co/iIJbOv2kgU
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 3, 2026
Here is the twist. The Israeli leader actually asked for this change. Per The New York Post, Trump stated that Netanyahu previously broached the subject. If we do not receive aid, The Prime Minister said, “I think it would be appropriate.”
He understands this is a point of contention for Americans. According to The Daily Caller, Trump noted that the US gives Israel more than anybody else. They have been doing it for years. But the need is gone. Trump called the country “a great ally” but insisted the cash stops.
There is a catch, though. Starting on Oct. 1, 2027, the next fiscal year could see the aid cut off. Per The New York Post, Congress must approve such a decision. The US official noted that the Israelis are OK with a steeper cliff.
Just a reminder: $4 billion is not the amount the US gives to Israel. That’s merely the absolute minimum the US is required to give each year under the Obama/Netanyauh agreement of 2016.
In 2024 alone, Biden gave Israel another $18 billion directly beyond the minimum guarantee. Then there are the tens of billions of direct costs to deploy the US military and deplete US weapons systems to protect Israel. Then there are the billions the US gives to dictatorships in the region to keep anti-Israel anger suppressed (like Egypt and Jordan).
And that’s before even getting to the immense costs of the Iran War, which is being fought against Israel’s prime adversary and was started at Israel’s urging/insistence. Israel is by far the largest recipient of US aid for decades. The $4 billion aid package is just the start, never the end.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 3, 2026
This moves the goalposts on foreign aid. For years, critics said the money was a bad talking point. Trump agreed. He questioned why the US should face criticism from “lunatics like El-Sayed” over funding Israel no longer needs. The timing was set before the election, not after.
Some say the cuts hurt an ally. Trump says the ally is thriving. Israel is a very thriving country and does not need it, so He stated, “It gets cut off at the end of the year… They don’t need it….” The administration argues this saves American tax dollars for home.
In publicly stating that he’s cutting off aid to Israel, President Trump is attempting to set a narrative: whatever action Israel takes against Iran has nothing to do with the U.S. It gives us a political “out” if Israel targets civilian infrastructure or uses a nuclear weapon on Iran.
Unfortunately, Iran will not see it this way. Just as they’ve hit us when Israel has initiated attacks in the past, Iran will retaliate against us & our gulf partners if Israel engages in further acts of aggression.
The reality is that it’s going take more than a public statement to meaningfully restrain Israel, especially when that statement highlights the still-heavy influence Netanyahu has on these decisions.
Bibi, Israeli officials, & their American surrogates have known for some time now that the days of unconditional support from the U.S. are reaching an end, and have resorted to misdirection: get everyone focused on Trump ending the cash funding & weaponry provisions, while in the background shifting their own efforts to push the far more lucrative— but harder to detect— “partnership” that’s on the cusp of being codified into law within the NDAA.
If POTUS is genuinely serious about cutting off aid to Israel, he must demand that Congress remove all proposed programs that will give the Israeli defense & intelligence apparatuses unfettered access to our own defense & intelligence R&D.
Protect American interests, put Americans first.
— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) November 3, 2026
The U.S. would still help Israel if necessary. But the automatic checks are done. The decision reflects a shift in how America views its partners. It is not charity. It is a business deal.
The money stops because the need is gone.
