Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is betting on a very specific turning point for gas prices—and it all hinges on how and when the Iran conflict ends.
Speaking before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Bessent laid out a straightforward projection: as long as the conflict continues, energy markets stay tight. Once it ends, prices at the pump could fall back to where they were before—and possibly even lower. It’s a confident claim, but one tied almost entirely to geopolitical timing.
Right now, the numbers tell a different story. The national average for regular gas sits just above $4 per gallon, according to AAA.
That’s down slightly from the previous week, but still more than a dollar higher than late February, when the U.S. launched military operations tied to Iran. The gap reflects what markets typically do during instability—prices climb on uncertainty, supply concerns, and the risk of escalation.
Bessent pointed to actions already taken by the administration to soften that impact. Specifically, he defended sanctions relief measures involving Iran and Russia that allowed more than 250 million barrels of oil—previously stuck at sea—to enter the global supply. His argument is that without that move, oil prices could have surged far higher, potentially pushing gasoline well beyond current levels.
In his framing, the strategy has already prevented a worst-case scenario. Instead of oil hitting $150 per barrel, he suggested, it’s hovering closer to $100. That difference, he argued, has directly benefited American consumers, even if prices remain elevated compared to earlier in the year.
But not everyone in the room shared his timeline. Senator Jack Reed pushed back, questioning how quickly relief could realistically arrive. From a defense standpoint, Reed suggested the conflict may not wrap up anytime soon—casting doubt on whether consumers will see near-term price drops.
That tension—between economic forecasting and military reality—sits at the center of Bessent’s comments. His outlook depends less on domestic policy levers and more on how quickly global conditions stabilize.
For now, drivers are stuck in the middle of that uncertainty. Prices have eased slightly in recent days, but the larger decline Bessent is pointing to remains tied to an outcome that hasn’t happened yet.
