Cuba is facing one of its most severe energy crises in decades — and this time, the squeeze is coming fast.
International flights are being canceled. Aviation fuel has run dry at major airports. Petrol is nearly impossible to find. Universities have closed. Rolling blackouts now outnumber hours of reliable electricity. On the streets of Havana, even the normally resilient black market economy is sputtering.
“This is a total, total collapse,” said one Havana bar owner near the Malecón, describing a city paralyzed by fuel shortages. “There is no fuel, no public transport and now no private transport.”
At the center of the crisis is President Donald Trump’s strategy to isolate and destabilize Cuba’s communist government by targeting its most vulnerable pressure point: energy imports.
Cuba produces only about 30 percent of the oil it needs. For decades, Venezuela filled most of the gap. But that pipeline effectively shut down following the January 3 arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on drug trafficking charges. Other potential suppliers, including Russia and Mexico, have reportedly declined to challenge Trump’s recent executive order threatening tariffs on countries that ship oil to the island. No new oil shipments have arrived in over a month.
The consequences are now fully visible.
Havana recently notified international airlines that its nine principal airports would be unable to provide jet fuel. Air Canada, WestJet, and Air Transat — serving Cuba’s largest tourism market — suspended flights and began dispatching empty planes to retrieve stranded travelers.
In Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been explicit. When asked whether U.S. policy seeks regime change in Cuba, he answered plainly: yes. Trump has echoed that message, saying he wants Cuba to “be free again.”
On the island, President Miguel Díaz-Canel has responded with defiance. State media broadcasts archival speeches from Fidel Castro. “Surrender is not an option,” Díaz-Canel insisted last week.
Analysts warn of a high-stakes standoff. University of Miami expert Michael Bustamante described the situation as a “game of chicken,” with the U.S. tightening the economic vise while Havana refuses to concede. The unknown variable is how much hardship the Cuban population can endure before unrest erupts — or whether the government can suppress dissent as it did following large protests in 2021.
Skeptics note the regime’s durability. Nearly 70 years of survival under embargo, mass migration that has drained much of the protest-age population, and continued state control over employment give Havana tools to maintain authority.
Yet collapse carries risks for Washington, too. Cuba lies just 90 miles from Florida, with a population of roughly 10 million. A destabilized island could trigger humanitarian fallout and migration waves.
That reality has fueled speculation about backchannel negotiations. Trump has said “we are talking to Cuba,” though neither side confirms substantive talks. Rumors suggest figures close to Raúl Castro — who remains influential at 94 — may be involved.
One potential bargaining chip: nearly $10 billion in unresolved U.S. property claims dating back to post-revolution confiscations. Some in Miami speculate that settlement of those claims, possibly in exchange for future investment rights, could form the basis of a deal — though decades of mistrust make such an outcome uncertain.
For now, ordinary Cubans face mounting hardship while geopolitical strategy unfolds above them.
“It doesn’t matter anymore if you say you are a communist, an anti-communist or something in between,” said the Havana bar owner. “This country has to open up. It’s over. Everyone knows it.”
