As California continues to grapple with an exodus of residents fleeing steep taxes, high cost of living, and the state’s liberal policies, new government projections show the Golden State’s population in 2060 is estimated to be 39.51 million people, which is lower than the 39.52 residents who lived there in 2020. Even more shocking, the figure is almost half of the 59.5 million residents that were projected in 2007.
“The latest census has shown that the highest tax states – California, New York, and Illinois – have all seen massive population exodus,” said Nicholas Robinson, director of accountancy at Illinois University.
This is a stark contrast from California’s former projection of over 50 million people in 2060, which many experts attribute to residents fleeing the high taxes and population decline as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
“The benefits or detriments of being in a high-tax state versus a low-tax state could be assessed by the population voting with its feet,” said James Doti, president emeritus and economics professor at Chapman University.
Data from the National Association of Realtors indicates that Florida and Texas rank highest on the list as Americans look to flee the Golden State, with numbers like 319,000 Americans making the move to Florida from July 2021 to July 2022.
“More Floridians move to California than California is moving to Florida,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, told Fox News host Sean Hannity in a recent interview.
However, experts note that the taxation and population exodus have compounded effects on the state, with California losing a House seat for the first time since achieving statehood back in 1850 over a population drop – and another seat could be at risk if the population continues to decline.
In news not likely to ease the minds of Californians, Gov. Newsom announced in May that the state’s budget deficit had grown to nearly $32 billion due to lower-than-expected tax revenue.
“Don’t count us out,” Newsom added in his Fox News interview, though a recent poll from a consortium of California nonprofits found that over 40% of residents are still considering leaving their home state.
Though California is projected to return to its 2020 population level in the 2030s, experts warn to be wary of long-term projections as many factors can change and the calculations can’t be full-proof. For now, Californians can only wait, and see how this exodus of residents will affect their beloved Golden State.
